Regarding central Texas weather, geology and soils: yes the Hill Country and it surrounding environs offer a very unusual, and unpredictable set of circumstances regarding weather, climate and geographic location near both the Gulf of Mexico and the monsoon belt of southwestern USA. Matt Lanza, Houston meteorologist and substack contributor offered an early explanation of some of the contributing factors regarding the central Texas flooding and unusual rainfall events.
However, potentially catastrophic rainfall events are not that unusual for this region as borne out by a gander of the records for some of the highest rainfall events occuring over the course of an hour to 48 hours in North America.. Texas is very well represented in the statistics.
The hill country rivers are famous for white water canoeing due partially the sloping terrain, but also from a strong, steady baseflow from the underlining limestone. Another surprising characteristic of these rivers concerns flood response times when a given watershed is completely inundated by large scale precipitation events. The response time of water being delivered to the flood channel; no matter how far away, or at what elevation it fell is one of the shortest, fastest respones certainly seen anywhere in rhe US, and is the subject of many interesting papers in USGS academic literature since at least 1970.
A combination all of these factors has contributed a rich flood history of catastrophic floods historically in central Texas as far back as you care to research, whether its the Nueces, Guadalupe, San Antonio, Colorado Rivers or others.
As populations increase, it places more people at risk who are unaware of these unique factors as they recreate in this beautiful region. I grew up there in the 1950s-60s. It is clearly time to address these immense tragedies that periodically unfold with regularity; and they are not as predictable as some would have us believe.
As for for GW, a warmer atmosphere will always be able to entrain more moisture aloft, and the increase of ctastrophic rainfall is evidence of this. In the case of this July 4th event, the instigation arose from a tropical depression out of Mexico.
Attribution of CC as a contributing factor will take statistical analysis after the fact. It is time to act, and also to rescind the cuts to weather research and NOAA.
Further, a flood warning system tied to 'river flood gauges' is long overdue. How will the cost of resources consumed by this event compare to a warning system. 60 - 80 lives is worth starting now. Further consideration should be givwn to zoning and planning regs as well.
Thank you for reading my article on US Border News and for your thoughtful comments. I agree that a flood warning system for the Guadalupe River in Kerr County is long overdue, just as it is for other flood-prone rivers in Texas that attract a large number of visitors. I will have more to say about that in an upcoming article.
Hearing this morning the story of family friends who were in the RV park next to the Howdy Restaurant. Of the couple, one is in hospital and one still missing. They woke because the RV was moving. Water already inside. Husband kicked the door open and was swept away. Wife went out after him and was plucked from a tree by someone in a boat. They heard no warnings whatsoever, BUT she makes the point that her husband takes out his hearing aids at night AND they have the air conditioning running full tilt which masks many sounds. Don't know about cell phone alerts but most people I know place phones on do not disturb at night. Also the emergency cell phone notifications are so ubiquitous -- silver alerts from 600 miles away, amber alerts ditto etc -- that I for one have silenced them.
Local authorities are only too happy to take the economic benefits from tourism, the least they can do, in a known danger zone, is install a working alert system.
I am so sorry to hear about your friends. Your comment about Kerr County's willingness to accept the economic benefits of river tourism without accepting the responsibility to build a warning system to inform visitors to head for higher ground is valid, especially considering that another county downriver has taken such a step.
Thank you for reading and taking the time to comment.
All RV'ers should have an emergency weather radio, period. They even manufacture ones for those who are deaf or blind. I also don't understand why such radios are not mandatory in these summer camps, where cell phone signal and satellite coverage are sketchy as hell on a good weather day. They don't call it Hill Country for nuthin' 🙄 Also: Why, why, why have local and county departments gone to posting all emergency and incident reports almost exclusively on Facebook and X(Twitter)? Texas is so underserved in rural areas, with zero internet and satellite coverage. And truthfully, "rural areas" make up the majority of Texas' land mass. When people consistently vote for lower or zero property taxes without a basic comprehension that those taxes fund their local community and county services, they end up with yahoo officials and legislators who vote against those needed services due to lack of funds. It's a vicious cycle that will continue as long as so many Texans choose to remain willfully ignorant about the facts of how government actually works.
I’m from S. Texas. EVERYONE, I assure you, everyone including Abbott, here remembers the May 1998 flood exactly the same in Kerrville TX , the same river, the same loss of life in the same summer camps. There was a NWS flood warning issued on last Thursday, and the flash flood occurred the early hours of Friday. I believe the Kerr County officials have a short memory! Kerrville is Trump Country, rep is Chip Roy, a total waste of time and money!
Thanks for your comments. I once wore the same EMT patch that TDEM Director W. Nim Kidd displays at his news conferences. I hope that he can prevail upon Kerr County to implement a warning system along their stretch of the Guadalupe to prevent a third mass-casualty drowning incident from happening there in the future.
Jack, You need to have a serious talk with that County Judge Robert Kelly……
Today I have seen the same message to about 10-12 posts who blamed cuts to the NWS and to make known that the NWS DID make warnings. I really have a deep appreciation of your broad and detailed information in your post. I’m going to read it through maybe 2 more times. It was amazing that many people made assumptions and didn’t dig deeper.
Thank you for your comments. Although the longer-range NWS forecasts didn't warn of a storm of this size, the shorter-range forecasts, watches & warnings opened a window into what did happen. During my brief time in Emergency Services, I learned to prepare for the absolute worst and then be relieved when that did not occur, as opposed to the opposite approach, which I fear may have happened here.
I appreciated your writing, Jack. I think Texans have a knee-jerk reaction to anything that reminds them of the Hurricane Katrina evacuation fiasco in 2005. We are still left with a LOT of misinformation surrounding the weather warnings and response by Texas officials, to the point where folks literally ignore forecasters for that "Texas Tough!" mantra. It's mind boggling to me that personal safety is attached more to firearm ownership, than common sense watchfulness and preparation. 🙄
These are pretty jackass things for you to write, even on social media.
We were in a San Antonio campground on the 11th of last month and nearly got flooded out. There was no warning from public officials or city services even in that rich county. Even the commercial on-site camp ground management was not notified. It wasn't the first (nor will it probably the last) Texas flood we have been involved with over 60+ years.
No where in Texas where we've encountered flooding has the type of warning system that you're talking about, and your piece is the only one I've seen even hinting that the weather services are to blame. You have no idea what such a system would cost to build or maintain, or whether Kerr county voters would pay for it.
Every county in Texas has the same political set up for handling disasters and emergencies, and even the 75+ year old tornado warning system is no longer maintained in even the richest counties. You do not detail what measures were taken by the judge, sheriff, or other emergency officials in Kerrville or Kerr county, but you allege that they were somehow negligent.
This piece is not up to your normal standards. I hope that it is not your new normal.
Winston: Thank you for taking the time to comment on my article. I value all readers' opinions, including your critical comments.
Based on your feedback, I have revised the story to include criticism of the NWS forecast from a state official.
I have also included information about a flood warning siren system installed downriver along another flood-prone stretch of the Guadalupe popular with kayakers and tubers, two counties over from Kerr County (in Comal County), as well as a flood warning siren system in Grand Prairie.
As a resident of Dallas-Fort Worth, I can also confirm that our local tornado warning siren networks are regularly maintained and utilized.
I still believe that questioning Kerr County Officials about their preparation, response, and lack of a warning system is fair. Other reporters are also seeking similar information, and I expect we'll learn more about that in the days to come.
I appreciate your feedback and value you as a reader. I apologize that you felt this story did not meet my usual standards.
With all due respect, why do you not have an emergency radio if you're a frequent camper or RV'er? I'd think most folks would consider it to be a necessity to stay informed about weather events, especially in an unfamiliar locale. Personally, I consider my personal safety to be MY job, and thus, a priority wherever I am. I've never had reason to trust that any government entity (local or otherwise) would take care of me. I just believe that it's up to us to protect ourselves, our family, and our communities, with personal responsibility being a key factor in our ability to do so. I think Jack's article points directly at that premise.
Thank you AGAIN for doing the critical thinking most journalists and pundits won't, because it doesn't cater to the peanut gallery.
I am reminded of two achingly stupid corollaries:
1. The January wildfires in LA, caused by...wait for it...climate change! Not that politicians who always hector us about the very same climate change should maybe fill a key reservoir before fire season, or prioritize the performance of the fire department over its diversity quotas, or consider brush thinning policies. [Or even to inform the wealthy communities in fire zones to maybe consider paying for their own area brush thinning if the city can't afford it.] That would be silly. And far be it from me to suggest that progressive politicians have a deep and abiding hatred for their most valuable constituents; surely it's just a coincidence that they're issuing rebuilding permits at the rate of one a month. ["You will own nothing, and you will be happy!"]
2. The 2021 grid failure in Texas, again with much misplaced hand-wringing.
Americans, as most citizens in modern civilization, have become so lazily disconnected from the levers of power that the reflexive impulse is to beg for more govt intervention, when the primary culprit is most often govt itself--either by stupidity or blatant cupidity, and often both.
The notion that govt can be trusted only when MY politicians that I voted for are in charge could not be more musical to any politician's ears. Here in California, there is a constant refrain about evil Republicans, while the Democratic supermajority has spent decades not only destroying an incredibly bountiful state, but undermining their own claims of environmental preservation.
Republicans can be blamed for the failure to adequately prepare for both scenarios in Texas, but again much of the intelligentsia chooses to keep repeating tired narratives about climate change or defunding the NWS, instead of doing a little arduous googling for proximal causes. If climate change is the new normal, the sooner we start thinking about mitigation strategies the better. I guess I shouldn't be surprised at the prevalence of lowbrow moral posturing, in an age when we are so affluent that legions of Americans earn six-figure incomes by blogging about inequality from their cozy breakfast nook, while their vast audiences can afford to pay for this information. Imagine medieval serfs with paid subscriptions to 'zines published by children of royal families about the indignity of sharecropping.
That was a random tirade about things that bug me, which happened to be triggered by the circumstances of this particular story. None of it was criticism of your coverage, which I always find to be thoughtful and nuanced. Even your replies to readers who write rude comments are polite and thoughtful, a rare quality these days.
No apologies are needed; I appreciate the feedback on my replies to comments. I've been in public-facing media roles for a long time, so I've learned not to take criticism personally. Thank you again for reading and taking the time to share your opinions.
No excuse for not following up on any warnings. Maybe no radios there? Oddly tho I live states away I remember the last time there was loss of life due to floods there
I expect we'll learn more about the preparation and response to this flooding in the days to come. If anything good can come of this, it would be the installation of a siren warning network along this popular and flood-prone stretch of the Guadalupe River, similar to the one in place downstream in Comal County. Thank you for reading and sharing your comments!
Regarding central Texas weather, geology and soils: yes the Hill Country and it surrounding environs offer a very unusual, and unpredictable set of circumstances regarding weather, climate and geographic location near both the Gulf of Mexico and the monsoon belt of southwestern USA. Matt Lanza, Houston meteorologist and substack contributor offered an early explanation of some of the contributing factors regarding the central Texas flooding and unusual rainfall events.
However, potentially catastrophic rainfall events are not that unusual for this region as borne out by a gander of the records for some of the highest rainfall events occuring over the course of an hour to 48 hours in North America.. Texas is very well represented in the statistics.
The hill country rivers are famous for white water canoeing due partially the sloping terrain, but also from a strong, steady baseflow from the underlining limestone. Another surprising characteristic of these rivers concerns flood response times when a given watershed is completely inundated by large scale precipitation events. The response time of water being delivered to the flood channel; no matter how far away, or at what elevation it fell is one of the shortest, fastest respones certainly seen anywhere in rhe US, and is the subject of many interesting papers in USGS academic literature since at least 1970.
A combination all of these factors has contributed a rich flood history of catastrophic floods historically in central Texas as far back as you care to research, whether its the Nueces, Guadalupe, San Antonio, Colorado Rivers or others.
As populations increase, it places more people at risk who are unaware of these unique factors as they recreate in this beautiful region. I grew up there in the 1950s-60s. It is clearly time to address these immense tragedies that periodically unfold with regularity; and they are not as predictable as some would have us believe.
As for for GW, a warmer atmosphere will always be able to entrain more moisture aloft, and the increase of ctastrophic rainfall is evidence of this. In the case of this July 4th event, the instigation arose from a tropical depression out of Mexico.
Attribution of CC as a contributing factor will take statistical analysis after the fact. It is time to act, and also to rescind the cuts to weather research and NOAA.
Further, a flood warning system tied to 'river flood gauges' is long overdue. How will the cost of resources consumed by this event compare to a warning system. 60 - 80 lives is worth starting now. Further consideration should be givwn to zoning and planning regs as well.
Thank you for reading my article on US Border News and for your thoughtful comments. I agree that a flood warning system for the Guadalupe River in Kerr County is long overdue, just as it is for other flood-prone rivers in Texas that attract a large number of visitors. I will have more to say about that in an upcoming article.
Hearing this morning the story of family friends who were in the RV park next to the Howdy Restaurant. Of the couple, one is in hospital and one still missing. They woke because the RV was moving. Water already inside. Husband kicked the door open and was swept away. Wife went out after him and was plucked from a tree by someone in a boat. They heard no warnings whatsoever, BUT she makes the point that her husband takes out his hearing aids at night AND they have the air conditioning running full tilt which masks many sounds. Don't know about cell phone alerts but most people I know place phones on do not disturb at night. Also the emergency cell phone notifications are so ubiquitous -- silver alerts from 600 miles away, amber alerts ditto etc -- that I for one have silenced them.
Local authorities are only too happy to take the economic benefits from tourism, the least they can do, in a known danger zone, is install a working alert system.
I am so sorry to hear about your friends. Your comment about Kerr County's willingness to accept the economic benefits of river tourism without accepting the responsibility to build a warning system to inform visitors to head for higher ground is valid, especially considering that another county downriver has taken such a step.
Thank you for reading and taking the time to comment.
All RV'ers should have an emergency weather radio, period. They even manufacture ones for those who are deaf or blind. I also don't understand why such radios are not mandatory in these summer camps, where cell phone signal and satellite coverage are sketchy as hell on a good weather day. They don't call it Hill Country for nuthin' 🙄 Also: Why, why, why have local and county departments gone to posting all emergency and incident reports almost exclusively on Facebook and X(Twitter)? Texas is so underserved in rural areas, with zero internet and satellite coverage. And truthfully, "rural areas" make up the majority of Texas' land mass. When people consistently vote for lower or zero property taxes without a basic comprehension that those taxes fund their local community and county services, they end up with yahoo officials and legislators who vote against those needed services due to lack of funds. It's a vicious cycle that will continue as long as so many Texans choose to remain willfully ignorant about the facts of how government actually works.
Not sure that Winston is aware of this:
I’m from S. Texas. EVERYONE, I assure you, everyone including Abbott, here remembers the May 1998 flood exactly the same in Kerrville TX , the same river, the same loss of life in the same summer camps. There was a NWS flood warning issued on last Thursday, and the flash flood occurred the early hours of Friday. I believe the Kerr County officials have a short memory! Kerrville is Trump Country, rep is Chip Roy, a total waste of time and money!
Thanks for your comments. I once wore the same EMT patch that TDEM Director W. Nim Kidd displays at his news conferences. I hope that he can prevail upon Kerr County to implement a warning system along their stretch of the Guadalupe to prevent a third mass-casualty drowning incident from happening there in the future.
Jack, You need to have a serious talk with that County Judge Robert Kelly……
Today I have seen the same message to about 10-12 posts who blamed cuts to the NWS and to make known that the NWS DID make warnings. I really have a deep appreciation of your broad and detailed information in your post. I’m going to read it through maybe 2 more times. It was amazing that many people made assumptions and didn’t dig deeper.
Thank you for your comments. Although the longer-range NWS forecasts didn't warn of a storm of this size, the shorter-range forecasts, watches & warnings opened a window into what did happen. During my brief time in Emergency Services, I learned to prepare for the absolute worst and then be relieved when that did not occur, as opposed to the opposite approach, which I fear may have happened here.
I appreciated your writing, Jack. I think Texans have a knee-jerk reaction to anything that reminds them of the Hurricane Katrina evacuation fiasco in 2005. We are still left with a LOT of misinformation surrounding the weather warnings and response by Texas officials, to the point where folks literally ignore forecasters for that "Texas Tough!" mantra. It's mind boggling to me that personal safety is attached more to firearm ownership, than common sense watchfulness and preparation. 🙄
These are pretty jackass things for you to write, even on social media.
We were in a San Antonio campground on the 11th of last month and nearly got flooded out. There was no warning from public officials or city services even in that rich county. Even the commercial on-site camp ground management was not notified. It wasn't the first (nor will it probably the last) Texas flood we have been involved with over 60+ years.
No where in Texas where we've encountered flooding has the type of warning system that you're talking about, and your piece is the only one I've seen even hinting that the weather services are to blame. You have no idea what such a system would cost to build or maintain, or whether Kerr county voters would pay for it.
Every county in Texas has the same political set up for handling disasters and emergencies, and even the 75+ year old tornado warning system is no longer maintained in even the richest counties. You do not detail what measures were taken by the judge, sheriff, or other emergency officials in Kerrville or Kerr county, but you allege that they were somehow negligent.
This piece is not up to your normal standards. I hope that it is not your new normal.
Winston: Thank you for taking the time to comment on my article. I value all readers' opinions, including your critical comments.
Based on your feedback, I have revised the story to include criticism of the NWS forecast from a state official.
I have also included information about a flood warning siren system installed downriver along another flood-prone stretch of the Guadalupe popular with kayakers and tubers, two counties over from Kerr County (in Comal County), as well as a flood warning siren system in Grand Prairie.
As a resident of Dallas-Fort Worth, I can also confirm that our local tornado warning siren networks are regularly maintained and utilized.
I still believe that questioning Kerr County Officials about their preparation, response, and lack of a warning system is fair. Other reporters are also seeking similar information, and I expect we'll learn more about that in the days to come.
I appreciate your feedback and value you as a reader. I apologize that you felt this story did not meet my usual standards.
With all due respect, why do you not have an emergency radio if you're a frequent camper or RV'er? I'd think most folks would consider it to be a necessity to stay informed about weather events, especially in an unfamiliar locale. Personally, I consider my personal safety to be MY job, and thus, a priority wherever I am. I've never had reason to trust that any government entity (local or otherwise) would take care of me. I just believe that it's up to us to protect ourselves, our family, and our communities, with personal responsibility being a key factor in our ability to do so. I think Jack's article points directly at that premise.
Thank you AGAIN for doing the critical thinking most journalists and pundits won't, because it doesn't cater to the peanut gallery.
I am reminded of two achingly stupid corollaries:
1. The January wildfires in LA, caused by...wait for it...climate change! Not that politicians who always hector us about the very same climate change should maybe fill a key reservoir before fire season, or prioritize the performance of the fire department over its diversity quotas, or consider brush thinning policies. [Or even to inform the wealthy communities in fire zones to maybe consider paying for their own area brush thinning if the city can't afford it.] That would be silly. And far be it from me to suggest that progressive politicians have a deep and abiding hatred for their most valuable constituents; surely it's just a coincidence that they're issuing rebuilding permits at the rate of one a month. ["You will own nothing, and you will be happy!"]
2. The 2021 grid failure in Texas, again with much misplaced hand-wringing.
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/03/04/ercot-texas-electricity-16-billion/
Americans, as most citizens in modern civilization, have become so lazily disconnected from the levers of power that the reflexive impulse is to beg for more govt intervention, when the primary culprit is most often govt itself--either by stupidity or blatant cupidity, and often both.
The notion that govt can be trusted only when MY politicians that I voted for are in charge could not be more musical to any politician's ears. Here in California, there is a constant refrain about evil Republicans, while the Democratic supermajority has spent decades not only destroying an incredibly bountiful state, but undermining their own claims of environmental preservation.
Republicans can be blamed for the failure to adequately prepare for both scenarios in Texas, but again much of the intelligentsia chooses to keep repeating tired narratives about climate change or defunding the NWS, instead of doing a little arduous googling for proximal causes. If climate change is the new normal, the sooner we start thinking about mitigation strategies the better. I guess I shouldn't be surprised at the prevalence of lowbrow moral posturing, in an age when we are so affluent that legions of Americans earn six-figure incomes by blogging about inequality from their cozy breakfast nook, while their vast audiences can afford to pay for this information. Imagine medieval serfs with paid subscriptions to 'zines published by children of royal families about the indignity of sharecropping.
Thanks for your comments. I have updated the article with additional information, fyi.
Sorry about my day drinking rant!
That was a random tirade about things that bug me, which happened to be triggered by the circumstances of this particular story. None of it was criticism of your coverage, which I always find to be thoughtful and nuanced. Even your replies to readers who write rude comments are polite and thoughtful, a rare quality these days.
Abrazos!
No apologies are needed; I appreciate the feedback on my replies to comments. I've been in public-facing media roles for a long time, so I've learned not to take criticism personally. Thank you again for reading and taking the time to share your opinions.
No excuse for not following up on any warnings. Maybe no radios there? Oddly tho I live states away I remember the last time there was loss of life due to floods there
I expect we'll learn more about the preparation and response to this flooding in the days to come. If anything good can come of this, it would be the installation of a siren warning network along this popular and flood-prone stretch of the Guadalupe River, similar to the one in place downstream in Comal County. Thank you for reading and sharing your comments!