(Note: this is the fifth in our series of in-depth reports on US border Issues)
An analysis of the raw data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) household survey by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) is turning heads. From the outset of this US Border News In-depth Report, we should note that their findings are not without controversy (which we will address at the end of this article).
Foreign-born population drop since January
The CIS “estimates that the illegal immigrant population declined an astonishing 1.6 million (10 percent) to 14.2 million from January to July of this year.” The CIS says this would be “by far the largest six-month decline that has ever occurred within the same year in the CPS since January of 1994 when the CPS began to ask about citizenship on a regular basis.”
Non-citizens are behind this sharp decline
The CIS analysis shows “the decline in the foreign-born since January has been entirely among those who are not U.S. citizens. The number of non-citizens is down 2.6 million, while the number of naturalized citizens is actually up 373,000.”
Non-citizen numbers from Latin America down sharply
The CIS analysis finds that “from January to July 2025, the number of post-1980 Latin American non-citizens declined by 1.6 million or about 10 percent.” The CIS concludes that “these results strongly support the idea that the election of Donald Trump, his rhetoric, high-profile enforcement actions, and border policies have caused a large number of illegal immigrants to leave the country and many fewer to enter.”
US employment of foreign-born workers down
The CIS study finds that “the number of immigrants employed is down 1.01 million, while employment among the U.S.-born is up 2.46 million.”
(However, the CIS notes that “given the way the weighting system works in the CPS, if the overall foreign-born population declines in the survey, it must be accompanied by an increase in the overall U.S.-born because individuals can only be U.S.- or foreign-born. (So) the 2.46 million increase in the number of employed U.S.-born Americans since January may be in part a statistical artifact due to the falloff in the foreign-born.”)
Illegal immigrant population drop follows boom
The “preliminary estimate” by the CIS is that “the number of illegal immigrants declined 1.6 million, from 15.8 million in January of this year to 14.2 million in July. This reverses the dramatic increase in the illegal immigrant population we have reported from January 2021 to January 2025.”
The CIS report is touted by the Trump administration
The CIS analysis (which credited President Trump’s immigration polices) has been cited as “UNPRECEDENTED” by the Department of Homeland Security:
But how reliable are these numbers?
The CIS report and its findings are not without controversy and criticism.
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick with the pro-immigrant American Immigration Council calls the CIS analysis “embarrassing,” and points to the statement below in the CIS report as evidence that their entire estimate could be wrong:
Melnick further cautions:
“CIS's own article admits that the entire estimate would be wrong if noncitizens were not responding to the Census surveys at the same rates as they previously did — which they themselves admit is a likely possibility given the current enforcement binge.” Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, American Immigration Council
What are your thoughts about the CIS report and its conclusions?
Share your thoughts in the comments to this article.
(Also, do you want more in-depth reports like this one? I want to hear from you!)
Abrazos,
Jack Beavers
My intuition is that can't possibly be correct this quickly; but I wonder if the recently exiled head of the BLS will suddenly be offered a job considering the news favoring Trump's policy. A step in the right direction, at least! Thanks for bringing this to my attention.
I've often wondered about CIS stats, because some of their illegal crossing numbers in the past have seemed both larger than expected and impossible to verify.
But in the vacuum of Biden admin secrecy, and the actual conspiracy by Soros-backed leftists who spend shocking amounts of tax revenue on sanctuary cities and states without their own citizens' consent, CIS is the de facto outlet for conservative information on illegal migration; a lone voice in the wilderness.